Florida’s Immigration Crackdown Is Squeezing the Labor Supply—And Government Data Back It Up

Author: Yoel Molina, Esq., Owner and Operator of the Law Office of Yoel Molina, P.A.

24 November 2025

Florida’s Immigration Crackdown Is Squeezing the Labor Supply—And Government Data Back It Up

Florida’s labor market is tight, and the squeeze is sharpest in industries that have long relied on immigrant workers. That’s not just punditry. Federal and state reports point to a clear pattern: tougher immigration enforcement and verification rules have reduced the available workforce in sectors like agriculture, hospitality, and construction right as demand for labor remains high. For small and mid-sized Florida businesses—especially in Miami-Dade—this translates into hiring delays, rising wages, and operational bottlenecks.

Below is a straight-talk breakdown of what changed, what the data show, how different industries are affected, and what pragmatic steps Florida employers can take now.

What changed in Florida

In 2023, Florida enacted SB 1718, a sweeping immigration measure. Among other things, it requires private employers with 25+ employees to use E-Verify for all new hires and authorizes civil penalties (including $1,000/day for repeat noncompliance) and potential license action for employers that repeatedly fail to use E-Verify. The law built on earlier public-sector E-Verify mandates and took effect July 1, 2023 (with penalty provisions following on July 1, 2024). ( The Florida Senate)

This isn’t just paperwork. E-Verify screens out applicants who cannot be work-authorized, shrinking the hiring funnel for sectors that historically tapped large numbers of unauthorized or work-ineligible applicants, even as business demand continues.

What government data say about labor tightness and enforcement

1) The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book now explicitly links labor shortages to immigration policy changes. In its October 15, 2025 systemwide Beige Book, the Fed reported that labor availability in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing was strained in several districts due to recent changes to immigration policies. The St. Louis District even noted workers failing to report because of deportation fears. Florida sits in the Atlanta Fed’s Sixth District; the Atlanta Fed’s own summary the same day said impacts from changing immigration policies were more significant than previously reported, concentrated in certain places and sectors like agriculture and hospitality—both core Florida industries. ( Federal Reserve)

2) Florida continues to post high job openings relative to available workers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 391,000 job openings in Florida in July 2025 with a job-openings rate of 3.7% and just 1.1 unemployed persons per opening—a ratio that signals a tight labor market. While openings fluctuate month to month, the longer-run trend since 2021 shows persistently elevated vacancy rates compared with pre-pandemic norms. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics)

3) Federal agriculture data show rising farm wages and continued reliance on hired labor. USDA’s May 2025 Farm Labor report shows Southeast field-worker wages up 2–4% year-over-year, consistent with scarcity premia when labor is hard to find. Separately, USDA’s Economic Research Service underscores how labor-intensive segments (greenhouse/nursery; fruit and tree nuts) devote extraordinarily high shares of production expenses to labor—meaning worker shortages hit output and costs quickly. Florida—home to large specialty crop, nursery, and sugar operations—is squarely in that risk zone. ( Esmis)

4) Florida’s own labor planners identify persistent occupational gaps. The Florida Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR)—through the Labor Market Estimating Conference—flagged statewide and regional “occupational areas of concern” where projected demand exceeds expected supply. Healthcare roles dominate statewide, and many regions post dozens of shortage occupations. This is not a causation statement about immigration policy; it is the state’s official acknowledgment of structural labor gaps that enforcement can exacerbate when it further limits candidate pools.

5) Florida tracks— and increasingly depends on—real-time job postings. FloridaCommerce’s Help Wanted Online dashboard and labor market updates confirm continued demand across service and trade roles that overlap heavily with immigrant labor. Again, this is descriptive rather than causal—but combined with the Fed’s enforcement notes, the picture is consistent: demand is steady; worker supply has become harder to source under stricter verification. ( Florida Jobs)

Industry snapshots: where the pain shows up

Agriculture (statewide, including South Florida): Specialty crops and nursery operations are labor-intensive and time-sensitive. USDA’s data show rising wages in the Southeast and high labor cost shares in exactly the commodities Florida grows. The Fed’s October 2025 commentary ties immigration policy changes to labor strain in agriculture; in practice, that looks like smaller applicant pools at peak harvest and more dependence on H-2A contractors (often at higher cost and with inflexibility). ( Esmis)

Hospitality & Leisure (Miami-Dade and statewide): Florida’s service economy thrives on hospitality. The Atlanta Fed highlighted policy-driven labor constraints in hospitality within the Sixth District, which includes Florida. Combine that with sustained vacancy levels from BLS JOLTS and you get longer hiring timelines, higher wage floors for frontline roles, and more churn as employers bid for the same smaller pool. ( Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Construction: Florida’s growth keeps construction demand high. The Beige Book repeatedly lists construction among sectors experiencing labor tightness associated with immigration policy shifts in multiple districts. When E-Verify screens out previously available crews, general contractors confront higher labor bids, delayed timelines, or must reconfigure subcontracting chains to maintain compliance. ( Federal Reserve)

Healthcare support roles: EDR’s 2025 occupational concerns list skews heavily into healthcare practitioners and support, which already face supply/demand mismatches. Immigration enforcement doesn’t directly target most licensed roles, but it tightens the pipeline for ancillary and support positions and increases competition for bilingual staff critical in Miami-Dade.

“Is enforcement the cause?”—How to read the evidence

Causation is always nuanced. Here’s what we can say, grounded in government sources:

Enforcement got stricter in Florida (mandatory E-Verify for most midsize and larger private employers with penalties). That’s a legal fact. ( The Florida Senate)
Federal Reserve reporting now links labor shortages in key sectors to immigration policy changes, including within the district that covers Florida. That’s a contemporaneous observation from the Fed’s business contacts—formal, repeated, and sector-specific. ( Federal Reserve)
Labor demand in Florida remains high (BLS JOLTS), while state planners acknowledge structural occupational gaps (EDR). That combination magnifies the impact of any factor—like enforcement—that reduces candidate supply. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Farm and specialty-crop operations—prominent in Florida—face rising wages consistent with scarcity, which is exactly where the Fed sees policy-related shortages, and USDA shows high labor dependence. ( Esmis)

Put simply: enforcement tightens the hiring funnel in sectors already struggling to staff up; the Fed has said explicitly that policy changes are part of the shortage story; and Florida’s labor metrics show demand isn’t letting up.

Practical steps for Florida SMBs (that also reduce risk)

Lock in E-Verify compliance. If you have 25+ employees, you must use E-Verify for all new hires. Document processes, train HR, calendar your 3-business-day window, and preserve records. The penalty structure is real, including daily fines and potential license impacts for repeated failures. ( The Florida Senate)
Tighten Form I-9 and onboarding. Align your I-9 procedure with E-Verify, standardize document review, and establish internal audits (quarterly is realistic). Consider counsel review if you’ve grown quickly or use multiple hiring sites.
Broaden lawful talent channels. When roles are truly hard to fill, assess H-2A/H-2B (seasonal agriculture and non-agriculture), TN (certain Canadian/Mexican professionals), or targeted permanent solutions where appropriate. These take lead time—plan early.
Redesign roles to tap new pools. Split high-skill tasks from entry-level tasks; invest in short-cycle training; offer predictable schedules and transportation stipends. In a tight market, job design can be the edge.
Leverage state tools to track demand. Use FloridaCommerce’s Help Wanted Online tool and workforce dashboards to track postings and adjust compensation before you fall behind the market. ( Florida Jobs)
Price for reality. If enforcement has raised your labor costs, model it into your bids or menus rather than chasing unsustainable headcount targets. The Fed and BLS trends suggest higher labor costs aren’t going away tomorrow. ( Federal Reserve)

Bottom line for Florida businesses

Florida’s immigration enforcement has tightened the labor supply in several industries with historically high immigrant participation. The Federal Reserve is now writing it down in black and white; BLS shows persistent vacancies; USDA confirms higher labor costs where Florida is most exposed; and Florida’s own EDR identifies ongoing occupational gaps. If you’re a small or mid-sized employer in Miami-Dade, treat this as a structural issue—not a passing storm—and adapt your compliance, recruiting, and pricing strategies accordingly. ( Federal Reserve)

Need help?

For legal help with Florida employment compliance, E-Verify, and workforce strategies, contact Attorney Yoel Molina at admin@molawoffice.com, call (305) 548-5020 (Option 1), or message via WhatsApp at (305) 349-3637.

Sources (government and quasi-government):

Florida SB 1718 summary & staff analysis (E-Verify mandate & penalties). ( The Florida Senate)
Federal Reserve, Beige Book (Oct. 15, 2025) and Atlanta Fed regional summary (policy-related labor shortages; sectors and Sixth District context). ( Federal Reserve)
BLS, Florida Job Openings and Labor Turnover — July 2025 (openings, rates, and tightness). ( Bureau of Labor Statistics)
USDA, Farm Labor (May 2025) and USDA ERS Farm Labor (labor-intensive commodity labor shares). ( Esmis)
Florida EDR, Labor Market Estimating Conference Executive Summary (state-identified occupational supply/demand gaps).
FloridaCommerce, Help Wanted Online (real-time job demand dashboards). ( Florida Jobs)

Note: Where state sources document the existence of labor gaps (not causation) and federal sources attribute shortages in key sectors to immigration policy, the combined record supports the conclusion that Florida’s immigration enforcement has contributed to labor shortages in specific industries while overall demand remains strong.